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THERE IS ALWAYS A BETTER BET, SWINGS,

SURRENDER AND MIND MUDDLING, PART 4

by The Babe

"The Babe" is a dedicated blackjack tournament competitor. He was attracted to the game at the start of the 80’s and has undoubtedly participated in more major blackjack tournaments than anybody. He has won his way to the televised tables of The Million Dollar II Tournament, the Ultimate Blackjack Tour on CBS, and the new 2007 season of the World Series of Blackjack. He still continues to compete, and has three major titles to his credit in the past two years.

 

Note: Part 1 in this series appeared in June issue of BJI, Part 2 in July issue and Part 3 in the August issue.

In Parts 1, 2, and 3 in this series, we learned that it is more advantageous for you to make a specific double down (e.g., 7-4 vs. a dealer 5) on the 2nd to the last hand of a tournament round, than it is to hit if winning the double will get you to a maximum bet "plus" lead for the last hand, even when a loss by you and your opponent will turn your lead into a ½ maximum bet deficit. We determined that your round winning percentage would increase by about 6.3% by doubling, proving the winning power of having more than a maximum bet lead for that last hand. Can this knowledge be of much use to you? You bet it can! Some tournament history should help make the point.

An incident occurred over 20 years ago that finally resulted in bringing this four-part article to print. I was sitting in the 3rd base seat of a semi-final round in a tournament at the now closed Lady Luck Casino in downtown Las Vegas. I was last to bet in the 2nd to the last hand of the round. $30,000 to the winner was up for grabs, and I WANTED to be in that final.

In about five years of tournament action, I had done alright, but had never been able to break through to a major first, or even a 2nd place finish, and I was more than eager to prove my theory to myself, which was that I certainly must be one of the best players in this game. More than likely I had a bigger ego than most of the players in the game! Little did I know how much more there was to learn, and at that moment, the $30,000 prize was more cash than I had ever seen up close. My hand was dealt! Can you guess what it was? You’re right! It was the 7-4! Then the dealer turned a 5 for her upcard. While the dealer was busy with the first five players to act, my mind was whirling with questions. If I double this hand and lose, do I have any chance left to win? Probably not! If instead I double and win, can anyone beat me on the last hand? Not likely! What are the odds? I guessed it was about 75% to win this hand and the round.

You should know that until 1985...

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