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Hand Lengths in Craps:
A Closer Look at Monster Rolls
By Dan Pronovost
Introduction
Dan Pronovost is the owner and president of
DeepNet Technologies, makers of a wide range of gambling training products and software. Their web site are: www.HandheldBlackjack.com and www.SmartCraps.com and all products are available for free trial download. Dan is the creator of the new card counting system Speed Count, which is being taught by Henry Tamburin and Frank Scoblete in the Golden Touch Blackjack two day courses: www.GoldenTouchBlackjack.com.This is a continuation of on-going articles on the game of craps and advantage dice control. As with prior articles, we are using new and powerful mathematical tools to analyze craps, now available in our software Smart Craps. This article refers to Pro Test and other statistical metrics described in our prior articles to date. If you haven't yet read these articles, you probably should to understand what follows:
- Craps article #1: www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_62_dice.shtml
- Craps article #2: www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_63_dice.shtml
- Craps article #3: www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_64_craps.shtml
- Craps article #4: www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_65_craps.shtml
Hand Length in Craps
In June, I wrote an article that basically showed that hand length in craps (the number of rolls that you keep the dice at one time) is a very poor metric for determining if someone is influencing the dice outcomes (see
www.bjinsider.com/newsletter_65_craps.shtml). We learned that while on the surface it seems pretty amazing when a shooter holds the dice for 1/2 hour or more (i.e., a long 40+ roll), these events by themselves are not good evidence of dice control. Pro Test, the tuned dice control metric used in our Smart Craps software, is by far a more accurate test and requires as few as 100 to 500 rolls to prove with statistical confidence that a person is indeed influencing dice outcomes.But after this article was published,
Frank Scoblete (a well-known dice controller and contributor to Blackjack Insider) provided me with some very detailed hand length data, asking for some analysis. Frank has already supplied me with personal Pro Test roll data in the past, and passed with the best scores I've ever seen (his roll set data represents 'godly' level of dice control skill, as I've been quoted saying a few times). Frank has meticulously kept records of his casino craps sessions, including total number of outings and exceptionally long hands.Having analyzed hand length (the # of rolls from come out to sevening out) in general for craps and found it to be a poor metric of influence, I was skeptical and tried to put him off… but he persisted and gave me all the detailed data I required. Well, having failed to find a way to ask for something he couldn't provide, I was left with no choice but to look more closely at the data.
And indeed, it was another case of bumping into the trees in the mathematical forest, as I like to say! With sufficient, complete and unbiased data, hand length can be an interesting and compelling variable to study in craps.
How to Properly Study Hand in Length in Craps
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