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AN INTRODUCTION TO RISK

By Eliot Jacobson

Eliot Jacobson has a Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Arizona. He was Professor of Mathematics from 1983 to 1998 at Ohio University, and currently holds a teaching position in the Department of Computer Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Jacobson recently published his first book on blackjack ("The Blackjack Zone," Blue Point Books, 2005) and it is available in the BJI store at 10% discount. He hosts the popular blackjack website www.cardcounter.com, where he is known as "The Mayor." To read a review of Jacobson’s book that appeared in issue #61 of BJI, click here.

 

Most beginning card counters have no understanding of the risks they are taking. They make bets from a quantity of cash they brought with them for their trip. They can’t really afford to lose a large portion of this cash. Moreover, they are not patient. They want to see something happen to change their lives, and quite often it does. Their impatience leads to making bets that are too large, mistaking a small edge for a sure thing, while playing lousy games for too long.

In this article we are going to discuss the fundamental ideas that every blackjack player should know before he plays a hand at the tables: bankroll, risk-of-ruin, expected-value, standard deviation, and desirability index. With a good understanding of these ideas, you will be able to make more accurate wagers at better games, reducing your risk while optimizing your return.

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