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Hand Lengths in Craps:
How Impressive are Those Monster Rolls?

By Dan Pronovost

Dan Pronovost is the owner and president of DeepNet Technologies, makers of a wide range of gambling training products and software. Their web site are: www.HandheldBlackjack.com and www.SmartCraps.com and all products are available for free trial download. Dan is the creator of the new card counting system Speed Count, which is being taught by Henry Tamburin and Frank Scoblete in the Golden Touch Blackjack two day courses: www.GoldenTouchBlackjack.com.

This is a continuation of on-going articles on the game of craps and advantage dice control. As with prior articles, we are using new and powerful mathematical tools to analyze craps, now available in our software Smart Craps. This article refers to Pro Test and other statistical metrics described in our prior articles to date. If you haven't yet read these articles, you probably should to understand what follows:

Hand Length in Craps

Traditionally, there are two justifications dice controllers use to provide evidence of their skill and ability to make money playing craps: 1) personal win history, and 2) hand length or number of rolls.

The former argument usually goes along the lines of, "I've been a dice controller for years, and I've made a lot of money doing it. I win more than I lose." While personal fiscal success or failure with dice control can be very convincing for the person involved, it unfortunately turns out to be a very bad statistical indicator, meaning it doesn't prove much by itself. As with most advantage gambling strategies, such as card counting in blackjack, the potential edge with dice control is generally pretty slim (1% to 3%), which leads to large bankroll (i.e. profit) variability. A few sessions, or even 100 hours, of slight gains does not constitute statistically convincing evidence. And in fact, the reverse can be true: a person who is indeed exercising healthy dice control may simply get unlucky and still have losing sessions. As we have discussed in our prior articles, a much more accurate and meaningful measure of skill is Pro Test, which measures axial and rotational control over the dice, based on the physics and principles of dice control. This maximizes the statistical information, yielding a good test that can prove dice control influence in as few as 100 to 500 rolls for skilled shooters.

The second common argument for dice control skill is reference to long hand length in craps. Hand length refers to the number of dice rolls a shooter has before relinquishing the dice to the next player (after sevening out on a point roll). 'Monster rolls' of 40 or more are often achieved and documented. What can these occurrences tell us statistically about dice control skill?

Measuring Hand Length Probability

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