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Blackjack Insider Newsletter, Oct. 2004, #57

TOURNAMENT STRATEGY:

MAKING THE "WRONG" PLAY AT THE RIGHT TIME

By Kenneth R. Smith

Blackjack Info

Ken Smith hosts the popular website www.BlackjackInfo.com and the new site for tournament players www.BlackjackTournaments.com. Ken has written tournament articles for Blackjack Confidential magazine. You can subscribe to his free email newsletter for blackjack players at http://www.blackjackinfo.com.

Sometimes expert play at tournament blackjack is about more than just mathematics and luck. There’s also a human component. In poker, they say "Don’t play the cards, Play the people." While psychology will never play as important a role in blackjack as it does in poker, playing the players at your table can still improve your win rate in blackjack tournaments.

Knowing the tendencies of your opponents can be helpful when you’re deciding on a bet size for the final hand. Often the optimal play is different against a skilled opponent compared to a relatively unskilled opponent. In some of these cases, a play that usually would be "wrong" turns out to be optimal.

For example, let’s look at the simplest of all tournament scenarios. We’ll use the betting limits from the Las Vegas Hilton MDBJ tournament, but create an arbitrary scenario. You’re in the lead, on the button, with $6000 compared to your only opponent’s $5500. Betting limits are $100 to $2500. It’s the final hand, and only one of you will advance.

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