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M.I.T. Blackjack Team Guide - Part 3

by Nicholas Colon

Nicholas Colon is an 18 year veteran of the Casino Gaming Industry, and Managing Director of Carnivore Investment Strategies LLC. He is an accomplished intellectual engineer with profound contributions in Analytic's, Finite Mathematics, and is leading analytical consultant. He can be contacted at nicholas.g.colon@gmail.com or on Twitter @byth3numb3rs.

Part 1 (covering basic strategy) appeared in BJI 195. Part 2 appeared in BJI 196 and it covered how to keep track of the proportions of high cards to low cards in the remaining decks, what values we assign to each card, and how we add them up and normalize the ratio. Part 3 covers the optimal betting strategy (i.e., how to vary your bet with the true count), and at what counts do we vary from basic strategy to maximize profit.

The conversion to the true count gives you valuable information regarding what percent advantage you have over the casino. As it turns out, each additional unit in the true count value, increases your advantage over the house by about 0.5%. The true count value gives the advantage that the player has at any given time. To determine the wager in accordance to the advantage you have, you must subtract the initial house advantage from the total true count value. The house advantage is dictated by the rules of the game and can be determined with any number of computer programs. In the previous example, a true of 5 less the offset of 1, tells the player to bet 4 units on the next round of play.

ADJUSTED INDEX NUMBERS

The final portion of basic advantage play is the adjusted strategy numbers. This set of indices, are plays that deviate from basic strategy depending on the true count. These plays can increase the profitability of a game by as much as 10%. The chart below represents the ILLUSTRIOUS 18, which are the 18 most valuable true count dependent plays that deviate from basic strategy. Lastly a training regiment is outlined for the player.

THE ILLUSTRIOUS 18 WITH SURRENDER

These are the 18 most advantageous deviations from basic strategy, based on the Hi-Lo count. The 18 plays described equal about 80% of the gain that could be had from playing the full set of indexes.

INS

HIT

STAND

DOUBLE

SPLIT

SURR

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

X

A

INS

 

 

 

 

3

16

 

4

-1

-1

0

15

 

7

2

0

2

14

 

 

7

3

5

13

-1

-2

 

 

 

8

 

12

3

1.5

0

-2

-1

 

 

 

 

 

11

2

10

7*

5

9

1.5

5

XX

6$

5$

* Only double when playing two hands or when playing one hand and maxed out.

$ Add 1 to each index for each stiff you get when splitting tens.

Ex. If you split XX against a 5, and get a X on one of them, the index moves from 6 to 7 to decide to split XX on the new hand.

TC = or > for each decision

SUMMARY

This concludes a summary of basic advantage play. Below is a five step process that you may find helpful. There is no time constraint for learning each step. Diligence and a commitment to excellence is all that is required

STEP 1

Memorize basic strategy and be able to count down a single deck in 25 seconds. Begin deck estimation drills, via CV software. Convert to a viable true count.

Play basic strategy while counting a single deck with a maximum of 3 counting mistakes. Continue deck estimation drills.

STEP 2

Play basic strategy while counting a three deck shoe with a maximum of 3 counting mistakes. Continue deck estimation drills. Convert to a viable true count.

STEP 3

Play basic strategy while counting a five deck shoe with a maximum of 2 counting mistakes. Continue deck estimation drills. Convert to a viable true count.

STEP 4

Play basic strategy while counting a six deck shoe with a maximum of one counting mistake. Continue deck estimation drills. Convert to a viable true count.

STEP 5

Memorize adjusted strategy numbers. Play basic strategy while counting a six deck shoe with a maximum of one counting mistake. Continue deck estimation drills. Convert to a viable true count.

Final Tip

To be a successful card counter, you should deal yourself cards or purchase software for training purposes. A half hour of practice in the morning and evening provides a good practice routine. If you are able to count, watch television, and understand the jokes on that program while keeping an accurate count, it is a good indication you are a competent player.

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