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DEVIATING FROM BASIC STRATEGY

By Henry Tamburin

Henry Tamburin is the author of the "Ultimate Guide to Blackjack," editor of the Blackjack Insider Newsletter, and host of www.smartgaming.com.

I recently received an email from a BJI subscriber wanting to know why we haven't written any articles on the topic of deviating from basic strategy. What follows is an excerpt from my new Ultimate Guide to Blackjack on this subject.

 

Chapter 10.7: How to Use the True Count to Vary Your Playing Strategy in Multi-Deck Games

In the previous sub-chapter, you learned how to very your bets in multi-deck games using the true count. In this sub-chapter, you'll learn:

  • When to vary your playing strategy based on the true count
  • The Index Numbers for 22 plays
  • How to learn and practice the deviations from basic strategy

Illustrious 18 Indices

Besides using your true count to size your bets, you can also use it to deviate from the basic playing strategy. The reason is that the more positive the count, the more inclined you will be to stand, double, split, take insurance, or surrender.

The following table contains what is known as the Illustrious 18 (for multi-deck games). It summarizes the most important hands for deviating from basic strategy (the ones that give you the most bang for your buck). (Developed by Blackjack Hall of Famer Don Schlesinger, author of the authoritative book Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way.) The first column lists the play, the second column lists the index number, and the third column lists the action you should take on each hand.

Note: The table contains the indices for multi-deck games with s17. Where two indices are shown, the second is for h17 game. If you want the indices for single- and double-deck games, see Table 10.1 in Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros' Way but note that the true count estimation was to the nearest quarter-deck for single-deck games and half-deck for double-deck games.

MULTI-DECK INDICES

Play

Index Number

Action

Insurance

+3

Take insurance at +3 or higher

16 vs 9

+5

Stand at +5 or higher

16 vs 10

0

Stand at 0 or higher

15 vs 10

+4

Stand at +4 or higher

13 vs 2

-1

Stand at -1 or higher; otherwise hit

13 vs 3

-2

Stand at -2 or higher; otherwise hit

12 vs 2

+4

Stand at +4 or higher

12 vs 3

+2

Stand at +2 or higher

12 vs 4

0

Stand at 0 or higher

12 vs 5

-1

Stand at -1 or higher; otherwise hit

12 vs 6

-1/-3*

Stand at -1/-3 or higher; otherwise hit

11 vs A

+1/-1

Double Down at +1/-1 or higher

10 vs 10

+4

Double Down at +4 or higher

10 vs A

+4/+3

Double Down at +4/+3 or higher

9 vs 2

+1

Double Down at +1 or higher

9 vs 7

+4

Double Down at +4 or higher

10-10 vs 5

+5

Split at +5 or higher

10-10 vs 6

+5

Split at +5 or higher

*Where two indices are shown, the second is for h17.

For example, suppose you have a 10-6, the dealer has a 9 upcard, and the true count is +6. The index in the above table for 16 vs 9 is +5. Therefore, instead of following the basic strategy decision to hit, you should instead stand. (This makes sense, because with a high positive true count, you are more likely to break if you hit in a ten-rich deck.)

Fab 4 Indices

In games that offer surrender, the following table (known as the "Fab 4," also developed by Don Schlesinger) summarizes the index numbers for surrendering the four hands listed in the table. (You surrender when the true count is equal to or exceeds the index number.)

Play

Index Number

Action

14 vs 10

+3

Surrender at +3 or more positive TC

Hit at +2 or lower TC

15 vs 10

0

Surrender at 0 and positive TC

Hit at -1 or more negative TC

15 vs 9

+2

Surrender at +2 or more positive TC

Hit at +1 or lower TC

15 vs A

+2/-1*

Surrender at +2 or more positive TC

Hit at +1 or lower TC

*For h17 game, the index is -1.

Learning the Strategy Deviations

Drill #1

The easiest way to learn the strategy deviations is with "flash cards." On one side of an index card, write the play and the other side the index number and the deviation. (For example, write 16 vs 10 on one side and stand at 0 or higher on the other side.) Then as you run through your flash cards, recite what the index number is and the strategy deviation. (For example, 16 vs 10, 0 or higher stand.) Keep going through your flash cards until you've memorized the index numbers for each play.

Drill #2

The following table lists 15 plays and the corresponding true count (multi-deck game with s17. Assume surrender is offered. Jot down how you would play each hand.

Number

Play

True Count

Strategy

1.

16 vs 10

+1

?

2.

15 vs 10

+6

?

3.

15 vs 9

+2

?

4.

12 vs. 2

-3

?

5.

16 vs. 9

+4

?

6.

12 vs 5

-2

?

7.

11 vs A

+2

?

8.

12 vs 2

+5

?

9.

10-10 vs 5

+5

?

10.

9 vs 2

+1

?

11.

12 vs 6

-2

?

12.

12 vs 4

+1

?

13.

10-10 vs 6

+4

?

14.

13 vs 3

-3

?

15.

15 vs A

+2

?

Answers.

    1. Stand
    2. Surrender
    3. Surrender
    4. Hit
    5. Surrender (Trick question: Basic strategy for this play is to surrender.)
    6. Hit
    7. Double Down
    8. Stand
    9. Split
    10. Double Down
    11. Hit
    12. Stand
    13. Stand
    14. Stand
    15. Surrender

Advanced Basic Strategy Cards

My good friend and fellow blackjack expert Kenneth Smith has developed a unique set of basic strategy cards that have the Hi-Lo index numbers from +5 to -5 printed on the cards. There is also a set of "stealth" strategy cards that encodes the index numbers using a series of black dots in a clockwise pattern on the card (so you can use these cards in the casino when you are playing without the actual index number's appearing on the card). You can use the set of advanced basic strategy cards (https://www.blackjackinfo.com/card/) to help you learn the index numbers for Hi-Lo (especially the ones for the Illustrious 18), and by having the stealth version handy when you play, you can refer to the card in the event you forget what the index number is for any hand.

Your Edge

By following the above betting and playing strategies for single-, double-, and multi-decks games, your edge as a card counter will be about 0.5% to 1.0%. The reason I'm not being more specific about this now is because there are several other factors that will influence how great an edge you can achieve when you use Hi-Lo, and I'll be discussing this in more detail in Chapter 10.10. (The biggest factor is the percentage of cards that are dealt between shuffles, known as the "penetration.")

Final Thought

If you've made up your mind after reading all this material about converting the running count to a true count that this is just not your cup of tea, don't jump ship quite yet. That's because in the next sub-chapter I'll be explaining unbalanced card counting systems (that don't require a conversion from running count to true count), and also several other simpler counting systems that, although not as powerful as Hi-Lo, are much easier to learn and use. Stay tuned.

Key Takeaways

  • The true count can be used in multi-deck games to not only vary your bets but also for deviating from the basic playing strategy.
  • The Illustrious 18 and Fab 4 contain index numbers, which is the value of the true count where you would change your playing strategy.
  • Using the Hi-Lo card counting system will give the player about a 0.5 to 1.0% edge (rules and penetration dependent).

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