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CASINO ANSWER MAN

by John Grochowski

John Grochowski is a blackjack expert and a well-known and respected casino gambling columnist. His syndicated casino gambling column appears in the Chicago Sun Times, Denver Post, Casino City Times, and other newspapers and web sites. Grochowski has written six books on gambling including the "Answer Man" series of books (www.casinoanswerman.com). He offers one-minute gambling tips on radio station WLS-AM (890) and podcasts are available at http://www.wlsam.com/sectional.asp?id=38069. Send your question to Grochowski at casinoanswerman@casinoanswerman.com.

Q. I was talking with a guy who was my host for a long time. He’s out of the business now, but I told him my current comp offers weren’t quite what some of my colleagues were getting with about the same play. He suggested that the others might be spending more away from the casino, eating in higher end restaurants or going to the spa. I’d never given any of that a thought. I’m there to play. Does that really make a difference?

A. With ever more sophisticated player tracking system, there has been an emphasis in recent years on total customer value. Not every casino operator bases comps and bounce-back offers on the customer’s spending total, but it’s a growing trend.

Those with the most sophisticated systems are not only tracking what you spend in the hotel, restaurants, spas and other amenities as well as your casino play, they’re using predictive analytics to spot customers who might be induced to spend their time and money in ways that increase the operator’s profits.

I spoke with a maker of data warehousing and analytic solutions who said, "You’re tracking not just worth, but behaviors. That starts to build the profile of what a customer is. And when you’re looking at it, especially in real time, your goal is to kind of modify those behaviors while they’re taking place. Maybe you want to transition someone from a less profitable channel to a more profitable channel, knowing what their behaviors are, knowing whether they have an inclination to go to your shows or to your spas. That type of information is critical in delivering a message or an offer that’s going to resonate."

It’s a huge change from the days when non-casino amenities were regarded as support services and loss-leaders, with profits to be made on the games. Now the amenities are expected to become profit centers themselves, and part of the goal of comps and bounce-back offers is to induce you to use the services that are most profitable for the resort.

That’s a long, roundabout way of saying yes, it is possible that your colleagues are getting better offers because they spend more on non-gaming amenities.

Q. What’s the strangest blackjack superstition you’ve ever seen? I just played with a guy who wouldn’t stand on 13, no matter what. He hit 13 vs. 6, and the whole table went nuts. He just said, "13. Bad karma."

A. Mostly, I’ve just encountered the run of the mill superstitions. There are those players who are certain a third baseman who hits 12 vs. 2 is taking the dealer’s bust card. One couple even told me third base was a team position, and they wouldn’t play with anyone who wouldn’t stand on those hands. I told them I hit 12 vs. 2, and they left.

I’ve seen a few who bring good luck charms to the table. One woman wore what she called her "blackjack uniform" --- a Chicago White Sox cap and a jersey with No. 29. She said she never played without it. Turns out 29 was the number worn by "Black Jack" McDowell, when he won 20 games for the White Sox in 1992 and 22 in 1993.

I asked if it helped, and she said she wasn’t sure, but wouldn’t want to risk not wearing it.

Q. In 9-5 Double Double Bonus Poker with a three-way progressive on the royal, four Aces with kicker and four Aces, no kicker, I was dealt Ace-2-3-4 of clubs and the Ace of diamonds. I know the play is the four-card straight flush in a non-progressive game, but if the Ace progressives get big enough, would you ever just hold the Aces?

A. There are turning points where holding the Aces becomes better play, but it’s an interaction of the two Ace jackpots. That’s very difficult to evaluate.

If the only progressive taken into account was the jackpot on four Aces plus kicker, the turning point is a jackpot of 6,280 coins instead of the starting point of 2,000. At that level, the average return per five coins wagered is 11.9149 coins regardless of whether you hold Ace-2-3-4 or the two Aces plus one of the low kicker cards. You’re not likely ever to see a progressive that large, but if you do, the proper play is to hold a kicker along with the Aces from that turning point onward.

If the Aces-plus-kicker pot was constant at 2,000 coins, but there was a progressive on four Aces, no kicker, starting at the rollover of an 800-coin payout, the turning point is 1,923 coins. When four Aces, no kicker, pay that amount, the average return for holding Ace-Ace is 11.9160 coins, nudging past holding Ace-2-3-4, at 11.9149.

But both jackpots increase simultaneously. Let’s say four Aces, no kicker, pays 1,200 coins, a 50 percent increase from the usual 800-coin pay. How big does the Aces plus kicker pay have to be for a strategy change? The turning point is 4,890 coins. If four Aces pays 1,200 coins and four Aces with a kicker pays 4,890, the average return per five coins play is 11.9149 coins regardless of whether you hold suited Ace-2-3-4 or Ace-Ace.

If four Aces are worth less than 1,200, it will take a bigger Aces-kicker jackpot to bring a turning point, and if the Aces alone are worth more, a somewhat smaller Aces-kicker prize will turn the strategy around. However, one or both jackpots will have to be at a level much higher than you usually see in the casino. As a practical matter, holding the four parts of a straight flush is almost always the way to go.

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