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YOUR REAL-WORLD BANKROLL

by Basil Nestor

Basil Nestor is author of "The Smarter Bet Guide to Craps," "The Smarter Bet Guide to Blackjack," and other comprehensive gambling guides. Got a question? Visit SmarterBet.com and drop him a line.

 

A realistic look at how much money you need to play blackjack optimally.

It’s the walk of pain, a sad retreat from the table, sometimes preceded by a plaintive phrase to the dealer, "Save my seat." It’s the unhappy trudge to the ATM or cage for more cash, while a thousand what-ifs swirl through a player’s head. Sometimes, for high-limit contestants, it’s an awkward pause in the action, waiting for a marker.

Almost everyone has done it at least once, but some people do it more than others do. It happens when someone wants to continue the game but finds that his pockets are empty.

Players tend to blame bad luck, bad play, or the house edge for their woes. But in fact, luck, optimal play, and the casino’s edge have little to do with busting out in the short term. The game is not the source of the problem. Even a very bad game cannot be blamed. Rather, it’s a question of "money management." A person could be the worst player on the planet, playing the worst game, but if he manages his bankroll correctly, he may lose money, but he’ll never take the walk of pain. Conversely, a player who has a strong advantage can still be cleaned out if he uses poor money management.

All successful professional gamblers (including casinos) use money management to safeguard their bankrolls and maximize their profits. The same strategies can be useful for you.

Big Bets vs. Small Bets

The basic premise of money management is simple. You want to bet big enough to maximize profit when the gambling gods are with you, but you also want to bet small enough to minimize risk and keep yourself in the game when you catch a bad run. Good and bad streaks are inevitable, but you cannot be a winner if you bust out and stop playing ten minutes before a hot streak begins.

Here’s an extreme example. Let’s say we’re betting on coin flips. If the coin comes up heads, you win $20. Tails costs you only $10. Who would give you such awesome odds? Nobody. However, the point here is that it’s a crazy-sweet bet. You could quit your job and flip a coin for a living with 2:1 payoffs like that.

But what if we take the same odds and make the base bet $1 billion. Clearly, that changes things. Even with 2:1 odds in your favor, $1 billion is an outrageous risk on a single coin flip. A smidgen of bad luck, just one loss, would leave you super-bankrupt, unless you’re a billionaire.

Now imagine that the stakes are only one penny. Even with favorable odds, it will take a while to earn substantial money. In fact, the game is hardly worth playing. However, on the bright side, even the worst luck will have little effect when the stakes are so low. You can play forever.

So how much should you bet? And how big should your bankroll be in relation to the size of your bets...

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