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WINNING AT BLACKJACK: EDGE vs. VOLATILITY
by Alan Krigman
http://www.iconworldwide.com/winningways/search.php.
Casinos reap their rewards on the edge in the games they offer. If they know, or estimate, the total amount bet over some time period, they can anticipate how much profit will drop to the bottom line.
Predictions based purely on edge are accurate provided three conditions are met: 1) The bosses must get the gross wager right, 2) Small numbers of extremely high rollers don't experience wins or losses so big that they bias the overall results, and 3) The selected accounting period is sufficiently long that enough bets are resolved for the law of averages to be legitimately applied.
Solid citizens normally don't gamble enough, especially at the tables, for the law of averages to take hold. In most cases, the issue for bettors is whether they're doomed to lose because of the casino's edge. Less often, for advantage players such as card counters at blackjack, the question is whether they're guaranteed to succeed because of their edge over the house. The answers in both instances involve the relationship between edge and volatility.
Pretend you follow perfect basic strategy at blackjack, starting each coup with...
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