THE ONE DECISION TOURNAMENT: Part 3
by Kenneth R Smith
Tournament expert Ken Smith has appeared on all four seasons of GSN's World Series of Blackjack, and had several appearances on the Ultimate Blackjack Tour on CBS. He is the author of the e-book.How to Win More Blackjack Tournaments: Tips, Tricks, and Strategies to Supercharge Your Game. Ken hosts the popular website www.BlackjackInfo.com as well as the online tournament community at www.BlackjackTournaments.com. You can subscribe to his free email newsletter at http://www.blackjackinfo.com/news/. Ken also recently released his new pocket blackjack strategy cards, which are available in our BJI store.
For the past two months I have been publishing results of a study of an unusual tournament format intended to focus strictly on the benefit of various bet sizes. This month I'll wrap up the research with the results of all the questions posed in the original article. First, let's recap the format and the questions.
The "One Decision Tournament" is a tournament round where players must choose a single bet amount for the entire round. They must flat-bet that amount, and they must play normal basic strategy for every hand.
The research questions:
All of these questions were to be answered under 5 different circumstances:
A) 10 hand rounds, 1 player advances, Blackjack pays 3:2
B) 10 hand rounds, 2 players advance, Blackjack pays 3:2
C) 10 hand rounds, 1 player advances, Blackjack pays 2:1
D) 10 hand rounds, 1 player advances, Blackjack pays 5:1
E) 100 hand rounds, 1 player advances, Blackjack pays 5:1
Against a random field of bettors, how do the various bet size choices perform under each group's circumstances?
A1: $5 @ 21.99%
B1: $5 @ 47.93% (large percentage due to two advancing)
C1: $5 @ 19.62%
D1: $245 @ 17.97%
E1: $55 @ 22.58%
We see that the minimum $5 bettor does best against random fields, even when blackjack pays 2:1. However, once we bias the game heavily in the player's favor by paying 5:1 on blackjack, the larger bettors come out on top. With 10 hands in D1, we bet nearly half a max bet to maximize our chances. In the longer 100 hand rounds of E1, a smaller bet increases the chances that we'll live to see the benefit of a few blackjacks.
You can see the particular impact in the graphs of all possible bet sizes...
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