Earn $198 on average with 99.9% Confidence
How can it be?!
It's for real. Honest. Read on to see our statistical analysis and proof.
On-line casinos continue to offer huge bonuses to new players who sign up. The reality for them is that despite the initial loss for the bonus, they more than make it up from the average player who plays a lot, and loses a lot. As long as the house has an edge, hooked gamblers who don't stop when they are ahead will eventually lose money.
But you can prevent that, if you're careful. By playing a modest amount of Blackjack using the exact method we prove works below, you can come ahead over 99% of the time. It's not complicated... it's about playing the minimum amount of blackjack using the safest method such that they'll let you walk away with what's left of the bonus.
How online casinos work
Before we provide the analysis, it's important to understand how Blackjack at online casinos works.
The game of Blackjack online
First, almost all online casinos reshuffle the cards after every round. This prevents card counting completely, and guarantees that the casino has a statistical edge against even the perfect basic strategy player. There are no 'tricks' to beating online casinos. If you're not in it to capitalize on their bonus, you can't play for profit.
Depending on the rules the online casino is using, the house edge can be anywhere from 1% to 0.2%... quite slim! But few actual players follow perfect basic strategy, so their losses per wager are usually around 2% to 2.5% in blackjack.
Typically, online blackjack games use 2 to 6 decks, limit the number of splits to one or two, and generally have favorable remaining rules (no double restrictions, DAS, S17 or H17).
Is it a fair game?
A common question is whether the games are fair. Since the game is online, they could easily stack the decks or cheat, and increase their advantage.
First off, online casinos can make a lot of money without cheating. Just like land casinos, they have an edge in most games, and tend to make much more since the average player rarely follows ideal strategy. The reality is that most online casinos are very successful fiscally, so cheating is not required to make a profit.
It is true that some on-line casinos have been caught cheating: Casino-On-Net is not one of them! An honest casino proves this by having their site audited regularly by a reputable accounting firm. As with most things, stick with the 'big boys' that have been around the longest, and you're less likely to be dealing with sharks. Casino-on-Net is well known in the industry as the biggest and most trusted online casino. Check out various online casino review portals for current reviews, such as casinos-now.com, or casinodreams.net.
First, you have to create an account. Most will take limited credit cards, but you can always mail in a cheque if you have to. This is the scariest part of playing online casinos... handing over real money to some unknown company in some far off place. Typically, online casinos set up shop in a tax haven such as Antigua or the Barbados.
So you ask, "Is my money safe? Will they pay up?". Well, this depends where you play. Some online casinos are better than others. Some have gone out of business without paying up all their customers. Others get grumpy when they see players clearly trying to run away with their bonuses. But the reputable online casinos have clear bonus policies, and will pay you no-questions-asked if you abide by their rules.
Since you have to deposit real money to get the bonus, picking a reputable online casino is critical. We've picked one casino, tested it ourselves, compared it to others, and checked with online blackjack forums. The good news is that they also happen to have the biggest sign up bonus... $200.
How signup bonuses work
Typically, the online casino adds a bonus amount to your account with the first deposit. The bonus amount is yours to keep once you have wagered a minimum amount, usually 2 to 5 times the bonus value.
It's essential to read the online casino's cash out policies very carefully. The best online casinos will deposit up to your initial deposit amount right back to the source (i.e. credit card), within a two to five days of the request.
Anything beyond the initial deposit (i.e. profit) can take up to a month to be processed, and is usually sent to you by cheque in the mail. It's in this situation that the casino will check to make sure you've wagered a minimum factor of the bonus amount before sending you your money.
How to do it
We've researched, tested and picked one online casino... Casino-on-net. Our reasons are:
Here are the steps to using our method:
Analysis of the game
The following analysis was done using Blackjack Audit, our statistical blackjack simulation program. We ran hundreds of millions of hands of blackjack to statistical verify these results.
The casino's advantage using the exact rules of Casino On Net is 0.210%. This means that on average, they will earn a minimum 1/5th of 1 percent of every wager made in blackjack. In practice, they earn a much higher amount (2%) since few players actually play perfect strategy. This means that of the $500 in total wagers you make using our method, you should expect to lose no more than $1.05 on average, leaving you with $198.95 profit after the $200 bonus.
Risk of ruin
Of course, blackjack is a game of chance and you are unlikely to see exactly the average outcome! Suppose you asked the following question: If 50,000 people came in and played using this method, what percentage of them would lose more than the $200 deposit? What's the chance on my coming out ahead?
To answer this, we completed a 'Risk of Ruin' analysis in Blackjack Audit. We ran 50,000 blackjack sessions, replicating the exact game conditions with Casino-on-net:
The results are amazing:
Click here if you want to see the analysis report from Blackjack Audit. Below, you can see the probability distribution of your expected earnings using this exact method:
Changing the method
We've already warned you that deviating from our prescribed method is not a good idea! Here's why:
Stick to our prescribed method! It works.
If you have questions about this, please feel free to e-mail us: firstname.lastname@example.org. In the interest of being up front and honest, we do indeed get a referral bonus for each customer who creates an account at Casino On Net. Now go make $200 bucks!
Update: Rules Change at Casino-On-Net
A sharp reader recently e-mailed us and noted that Casino-On-Net no longer has the 'rehit split aces option': after splitting a pair of aces, you only get one extra card for each hand. He asked if that changed the outcome of this analysis.
We re-ran the simulations with this rule change. The results were:
So, the rule change make no significant difference in the results of this study.
In effect, the small number of hands relative to the size of bankroll, eliminates any
effect caused by the slightly worsened rules.
This is the correct basic strategy for the game at Casino-on-Net
This is the correct basic strategy for the game at Casino-on-Net
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